New Seat Details - Farnworth and Radcliffe

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Farnworth and Radcliffe been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	25,761	54.6%
CON	17,321	36.7%
UKIP	2,750	5.8%
LIB	855	1.8%
Green	363	0.8%
OTH	131	0.3%
LAB Majority	8,440	17.9%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Farnworth and Radcliffe: Map

List of old seats forming part of Farnworth and Radcliffe

Old seat: Bolton South East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bolton South East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bolton South East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Bolton	Farnworth	9,838	Farnworth and Radcliffe	1,782	4,034	87	477	80	0	0	0	6,460
Bolton	Great Lever	8,722	Bolton North East	1,275	4,340	77	341	79	0	0	0	6,112
Bolton	Harper Green	9,160	Farnworth and Radcliffe	1,677	3,745	101	427	72	0	0	0	6,022
Bolton	Hulton	9,480	Farnworth and Radcliffe	2,478	2,746	96	413	66	0	0	0	5,799
Bolton	Kearsley	10,005	Farnworth and Radcliffe	2,117	3,092	165	490	81	0	0	0	5,945
Bolton	Little Lever and Darcy Lever	9,320	Farnworth and Radcliffe	2,170	2,596	148	440	64	0	0	0	5,418
Bolton	Rumworth	9,085	Bolton North East	1,052	5,124	106	190	96	0	0	0	6,568
	Total	65,610		12,551	25,677	780	2,778	538	0	0	0	42,324

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bolton South East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Bury South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bury South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bury South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Bury	Besses	7,667	Prestwich and Middleton	2,006	3,369	134	163	0	0	0	48	5,720
Bury	Holyrood	8,333	Prestwich and Middleton	2,296	3,164	197	172	0	0	0	17	5,846
Bury	Pilkington Park	7,328	Prestwich and Middleton	2,714	2,141	50	100	0	0	0	9	5,014
Bury	Radcliffe East	8,217	Farnworth and Radcliffe	2,371	3,255	111	180	0	0	0	74	5,991
Bury	Radcliffe North	8,207	Farnworth and Radcliffe	2,506	2,893	89	164	0	0	0	27	5,679
Bury	Radcliffe West	7,804	Farnworth and Radcliffe	2,220	3,400	58	159	0	0	0	30	5,867
Bury	Sedgley	8,128	Prestwich and Middleton	2,884	3,579	180	118	0	0	0	10	6,771
Bury	St Mary's	7,371	Prestwich and Middleton	2,058	2,944	164	138	0	0	0	14	5,318
Bury	Unsworth	7,030	Bury	2,144	2,421	83	122	0	0	0	16	4,786
	Total	70,085		21,199	27,166	1,066	1,316	0	0	0	245	50,992

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bury South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Farnworth and Radcliffe

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Farnworth and Radcliffe
Bolton	Farnworth	10,514	Bolton South East	1,782	4,034	87	477	80	0	0	0	6,460
Bolton	Harper Green	9,801	Bolton South East	1,677	3,745	101	427	72	0	0	0	6,022
Bolton	Hulton	9,440	Bolton South East	2,478	2,746	96	413	66	0	0	0	5,799
Bolton	Kearsley	9,676	Bolton South East	2,117	3,092	165	490	81	0	0	0	5,945
Bolton	Little Lever and Darcy Lever	8,818	Bolton South East	2,170	2,596	148	440	64	0	0	0	5,418
Bury	Radcliffe East	8,661	Bury South	2,371	3,255	111	180	0	0	0	74	5,991
Bury	Radcliffe North	8,212	Bury South	2,506	2,893	89	164	0	0	0	27	5,679
Bury	Radcliffe West	8,482	Bury South	2,220	3,400	58	159	0	0	0	30	5,867
	Total	73,604		17,321	25,761	855	2,750	363	0	0	131	47,181

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Farnworth and Radcliffe. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Yasmin Qureshi (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	73,604
Turnout:	64.1%

Farnworth and Radcliffe: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Farnworth and Radcliffe: Overview

Introduction